A Guide to Arbitrage Betting with Betfair

The TAB in its wisdom offers "offers" at times, usually during carnivals and give prices above the normal price to tease you into have a bet.

Arbitrage betting, also known as "arbing," is a popular betting strategy where a punter takes advantage of the difference in odds between two or more sets of prices to guarantee a profit regardless of the event outcome.

This article introduces the basics of arbitrage betting using Betfair, BF and a traditional bookmaker, TAB. Arbitrage betting can involve placing bets on all possible outcomes of an event at various odds. If done correctly, a guaranteed profit can be made.

For example:

A bookmaker might offer odds of $2.10 to win.

Betfair, odds for the opposite outcome may be available at $2.00.

These small discrepancies can secure a guaranteed profit regardless of the result.

The offered example for this article is for the favorite, EL CASTELLO in the Penfolds Victoria Derby at Flemington 2/11/2024.

The TAB from memory offered a very generous $6 about this horse winning which was a few points longer than generally on offer, but at the same time limited the bet to $10 maximum, so not generous but is fine for this example.

At the time of the event, BF was offering $3.30 about the same horse losing.

Bet $10 on EL CASTELLO @ $6 potential result if he wins: return $60 for a $50 profit. But no win, ta ta to the tenner. And that's a different tenner to the tenor Luciano Pavarotti.

So what can you do?

The first obvious scenario is to bet $10 on EL CASTELLO to lose @ $3.30

Outcomes

EL CASTELLO wins: Return $60 - $10 stake - $10 BF= $40 profit.

EL CASTELLO loses Return $0 Loss: $0

By laying EL CASTELLO off on BF for the win means you can't lose. You don't win anything if he loses but you also don't lose.

You might think he has little chance of winning so bet more aggressively for the lay bet.

Bet $10 on EL CASTELLO @ $6 TAB

Bet $20 on to lose @ $3.30

Outcomes

EL CASTELLO wins: Return $60 - $10 stake - $46 BF= $4 profit.

EL CASTELLO loses Return $20 - $10 = $10 profit.

In this second case, a profit can be made regardless of the result.

Benefits of Arbitrage Betting

• Guaranteed Profits: If executed correctly, arbitrage eliminates risk.
• Diverse Betting Options: Betfair's ability to place lay bets offers flexibility.
• No Skill Dependency: Unlike traditional betting, arbitrage relies on math rather than predicting outcomes.

Risks and Limitations

• Odds Fluctuations: Odds can change rapidly, which may disrupt your calculated profit margin.
• Betfair Commission: Betfair charges a commission on winning bets may impact your final profit.
• Account Limits: Some accounts on Betfair may be restricted due to certain betting patterns, affecting your ability to lay bets.

Some further features of Arbing will be discussed in a future article.