Target BettingTarget Betting
Target betting is easy to understand.
You aim to bet to either win or collect the same amount, regardless of which performer wins the race.
This article considers betting to collect a set amount whether that is on horse racing, harness or the dish lickers...
Betting on horses and many gambling games have so few rules, and this lack of structure makes it both good and bad.
The horses run as usual, it has that structure. From a betting viewpoint, there are so many possibilities. You can do whatever you like but at the same time doing whatever you like can not work out so good.
Rules and structure is what makes most people successful. At the same time gambling without a care in the world can be a lot of fun if losses are kept in check.
This article looks at adding a layer of structure to betting win and place on horse racing but the same approach can be applied to the other codes.
For some races, many punters win bet on one or maybe two horses with the same amount on each runner. Consider the following race:
| Horse | Available Odds |
|---|---|
A |
$5 |
B |
$2.5 |
C |
$4 |
D |
$16 |
E |
$7 |
The numbers are where it's at for target betting.Focus on the numbers
In this race horse A is priced at $5 and horse B at $2.50. A $20 bet on both horses will produce the following profit if one of them wins:
| Horse | Wager | Available Odds | Return | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | $20 | $5 | $100 | $60 |
| B | $20 | $2.5 | $50 | $10 |
Do both horses have the same chance of winning?
This is one way to bet when you think both horses have an equal chance.
From the example though clearly horse B needs a bigger bet to make it more profitable.
The question. Is horse B a better chance or is it simply priced shorter?
No one knows the answer until after the race so the best you can do is estimate.
If you are going to bet, like most people, you need to have an opinion.
As a punter, if you think each horse has an equal chance, then both runners should be priced at the same value.
Seems reasonable. $2.50 or $5 or perhaps some other price.
On the other hand, if they are not equal chances, why bet the same amount?
The following video shows how to use the Ratings Calculator for target betting:
This brings us to Target Betting.
Target betting using markets is probably the best way to go when doing win or place betting. The word ‘probably’ is used as in gambling there is never one absolute perfect way.
First using a market will be considered and the target amount to aim for will be $100.
Clearly larger or smaller amounts can be used.
The table considers the same race:
| Horse | Available Odds | Percent |
|---|---|---|
A |
$5 |
20% |
B |
$2.5 |
40% |
C |
$4 |
25% |
D |
$16 |
6% |
E |
$7 |
14% |
Total Percent: |
105% |
|
Horse B is priced at $2.50 and converting that price to a percent gives the answer 40% (100/2.5).
Following the odds in this case means you should bet:
40% of the cash on horse B which is the favorite for the race
20% for Horse A.
The same is done for the other prices and the total percentage adds up to 105%.
If you bet on every runner with their percent amount as a dollar amount then you would outlay $105 for a potential collect of $100.
Not a great result by anyone calculations. But clearly we can make some better bets on the two horses from the earlier example:
| Horse | Wager | Available Odds | Return | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | $20 | $5 | $100 | $40 |
| B | $40 | $2.5 | $100 | $40 |
The total outlay is $60 with each runner returning the same amount and the same profit if successful.
This is the next level up on the earlier Example 1 still using the available odds.
Each section is a level up on the previous level. So get ready to level up!
What happens if you think Horse A has a better chance than horse B?
Makes sense doesn't it that you want to bet more on horse A than horse B? (The same logic applies to place betting.)
Part 2: Markets...